Step 20

Key Assumptions Identification

Identifying Key Assumptions is the first part of the process to validate your primary market research by looking for customers to take specific actions, which will happen in the next step.

Before the assumptions can be tested, they need to be broken down into their component parts, so that each assumption represents a specific, narrow idea that can be empirically tested in the next step using a single experiment design. Do not worry about how you will design the experiment yet. Focus on breaking out all the Key Assumptions, because if you skip over an assumption fearing that testing it is difficult, you will neglect a potentially important factor in your business’s health.

This step does not involve a lot of new work, but it is important. It is nice to have a step that is a bit easier, isn’t it? You are getting close to the end now—hang in there!


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Process Guide

Start by reviewing the work you have done in each step of the 24 steps thus far and build a list of Key Assumptions you have made at each step. Prioritize the list and identify the 5–10 assumptions that are the most crucial to the success of your product. Use Worksheet 20.1 to list these assumptions, the related step(s) from the 24 steps, the risk level of the step (low, medium, high, critical), and briefly describe what will happen to your company if your assumption turns out to be incorrect.

In the next step, you will test these assumptions, but for now, don’t worry about how you will test them, or if you will be biased toward easily tested assumptions. Your goal for now is to identify the most important assumptions, regardless of your ability to test them.


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